I don't post much about politics here anymore. I'll occasionally touch on political matters on my Substack site, and for the most part, I make observations rather than state opinions.
I can still make people mad, though, and I've lost a couple of subscribers over there because of what they perceive my opinion to be.
This blog has become more about friendships, and my posts here tend to be fairly benign.
But sometimes I feel the need to dip my toe into the political stuff with my friends here. The few of you who read my posts here know I have no harmful intent, and I respect whatever your opinion may be as much as you do mine.
So, today is one of those days.
It is nothing short of astounding the way the 2024 presidential race is unfolding.
The incumbent, Joe Biden, is 80 years old. If elected to a second term, he will be 82 at the start of it, and 86 at the end of it.
For the most part, I don't have a problem with that. In spite of what some may think, there appears to be no indication Biden does not have all his mental faculties and is not capable of fulfilling his duties. Now, why he would want to have one of the most stressful jobs in the world in his golden years is beyond my comprehension, but can he do it? Well, it appears he can. For now, anyway.
Some folks think he did not intend to run for a second term. There are theories that when it became evident one Donald J. Trump was not going away, and would, in fact, emerge as the frontrunner in the GOP field, Democratic operatives encouraged Biden to run. In short, they were afraid nobody else could beat Trump. Biden did it once, so he can do it again, according to this theory.
And if you subscribe to this line of thinking, yes, he's old, but anything is better than Trump being president again.
And what of Trump? Well, he's got legal troubles out the wazoo. Lawsuits and indictments everywhere he looks. And yet, if you believe the polling, he is still the choice of most Republican voters.
Biden has his own problems. Son Hunter has not exactly done him proud with his escapades. The Republicans badly want to make hay over the Biden Justice Department cutting Hunter a deal and Hunter getting off way too lightly because of his last name and his father's current occupation.
And right now, it appears these two -- a former president who is facing criminal prosecution and an 80-year-old whose son who is causing no small amount of angst -- will again be facing off.
I tend to think, somewhere along the way, Trump, with all this legal stuff, will have to bow out. He will need to cut deals to avoid any number of criminal trials (that could result in prison time). And part of that will be not seeking the presidency again (if this occurs as I am proposing).
If that happens, he will undoubtedly portray himself as a victim and blame everyone he can think of.
And should that happen, will Biden stay in the race? I think he will, as I don't think the Dems will have time to groom anyone else.
But what do I know? I was once of the opinion this country would never elect Trump. I don't come into this with any kind of successful track record.
All we can do is watch, if we dare. On the bright side, it's pretty good theater.
2 comments:
This political season bewilders me and if you put a gun to my head and told me to read the tea leaves correctly, I would say I have a 90% chance of dying. My guess is that the bread and butter democrats are hoping Biden can beat Trump and then promptly die and leave his office to Vice President Harris. I'm not sure what the republicans are thinking/hoping. Trump just seems to defy all odds.
Here in Iowa, Trump is only polling around 30% among likely Republican voters but still that is twice what his runner up DeSantis is polling. Tim Scott is polling much higher than expected for a relatively dark horse but I just don't see someone else winning as long as DeSantis and others remain in the race. They dilute each other and it seems likely Trump will win the nomination again.
I hate to put this in writing but honestly, I think the best outcome for everyone would be for either Biden or Trump to keel over sometime yet this fall and force an alternative to rise up. But being sort of middle of the road, I'm not sure a Harris/DeSantis race is any better than a Biden/Trump race.
It all fills me with despair. Biden/Trump, Harris/DeSantis. Anyone I feel I could reasonably vote for doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of getting the nomination (on either side, not that any Dems are even stepping up other than RFK Jr, who no one takes seriously)
I've voted third party the last two elections (enthusiastically the first time, with resignation the second) and it appears I'll be doing the same in 2024.
Post a Comment